Vulnerability Analysis Excercise (PAD 4841/5896 – Intelligence Analysis)


Vulnerability Analysis Excercise (PAD 4841/5896 – Intelligence Analysis)

The FBI informs state and local law enforcement and emergency management officials that they’ve collected intelligence indicating an impending attack against the area your target occupies (city, large location, municipality, etc.) coinciding with an important event.

  • This analysis report:
    • Creates a comprehensive portrait of your location – you can reference your ASCOPE/PMESII from tactical lecture (you don’t need to redo this)
    • Describes probable threats
    • Relates the history of violence and terrorism in your location and the region of the U.S. (maybe the whole of the U.S. depending on the relative importance of the location)
    • Explicates the analysis

NAME OF TARGET: Seagram Building                                                                                                                  

NAME OF LOCATION: New York City, east of the 52nd and 53rd streets, midtown Manhattan.                                                                                                                        


  • Identify the various modes of transportation an attacker may use to enter the location
    • Think multi-stage transit
by seaby landby air
Through a cargo ship camouflaging as one of the ship workers. Through a sea vessel such as a tourist ship posing as one of the domestic tourist. Using a yatch from neighboring states posing as a passing vessel on the waterfront Weapons and ammunition packaging in between the Home equipment. Weapons and ammunition transported as part of the  supplies needed for the ship attendants on transit.        Using private cars posing as people on their own mission’ Pedestrians on foot getting involved in suicide bombings Weapons transported through the private cars posed as movers for domestic household equipment’s.Through the normal passenger plane posing as the visitors to national places. Through  the  terror hijacked planes that have been diverted and aim directly at the building. Weapons transported as crucial medical equipments.
If multi-stage transit? (sea first)If multi-stage transit? (land first)If multi-stage transit? (air first)


  • Prioritize the list of various modes of transportation
    • Minimize chances of detection in planning, while in transit, and during the attack.
    • Means to transport the terrorists’ weapons and ammunition.
    • Maintain control over the timing and logistics of the operation.
    • Opt for simplest methods to minimize potential miscalculations.
    • Maximize the chances of escape when the operation concludes.
    • Minimize the need to depend on good weather.
  • Your ratings, if you decide to use them, are up to you. Use your skills acquired from the structured analytical techniques to think about how you would rate your ideas.
Ways to enter LOCATIONRatings
 The choice of entering the location by sea      The choice of entering through the land           The choice of entering the location by air            Poor since the movement from sea to the location can easily be detected.   There is minimal movement of the armory and the suspects hence reduced chances of being nabbed. There is ease of movement from the crime scene.   The optimal choice of undetected movement though it poses the risk of depending on weather for visibility purposes.


Refer to your PowerPoint/lecture to complete this section. Your lead hypothesis will be translated to your first hypothesis. Alternatives should be considered independently from one another for each of the key components. For example, if your lead hypothesis for “who?” is the Florida Gators, alternatives will be the Hurricanes or Clemson Tigers. Repeat these steps to complete the table.

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Key ComponentsLead HypothesisAlternatives or Contrary Dimensions
What? (weapons)Bombs and explosivesMass shootingsSuicide bombers
Where? (targets)Seagram buildingsOpen spacesFreedom Tower
How? (tactics) Spies, direct attacksCamouflaged plane workers  Explosives
Why? (motives)Disruption of servicesAssertion of power around the world Religion based assertion of power
When? (timing) Daytime Early morningAfter work evening hours

These quadrants will help you weigh alternatives to your lead hypothesis. Enter your alternative or contrary dimensions from the previous table according to the listed key components. Again, use your PowerPoint/lecture for guidance. Once completed, choose one from each quadrant (what/how, what/where, how/where) to list as your second, third, and fourth hypotheses.

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1ALQAEDA3Direct attacks
2Bombing4Seagram building, NewYork
5ISIS7Mass shootings
6Camouflaged plane assistants8Open street spaces in New York
9ALSHABAAB11Suicide Bombers
10Explosives12Freedom Tower

List the most likely hypotheses à for your ACH

  1. The ALQAEDA terrorist group is prone to make an attack on the Seagram building. The suspects and equipment shall be transported via sea. The weapons shall be covered as food and water supplies for the ship attendants. The attack shall take place during the day as a form of disruption of the activities of the day through bombings.
  • ISIS group a jihadist group is prone to undertaken mass shootings in the streets of New York. The suspects and equipment are already in the country. The transportation to the venue shall be through private movers company that shall help in concealing of the weapons from police nabbing. Since the main intent of the attack is to assert the presence of the jihadist group in the world, their aim is to shoot random citizens during the day.
  • ALSHABAB terror group shall conduct a series of attacks on the Freedom Tower in New york. The extremist group shall use hijacked plane to strike the sky crapper just as it was in the 11/9 attacks. The main intention of the attack is for the USA government to stop the series of attacks on the Islamic countries.  The attack is scheduled for evening hours.
  • The ALSHABAAB group shall attack the Freedom tower in the evening hours through camouflaged plane workers. The entry mode shall be through a diverted plane attack forced into the building. Since the main intention of the attack shall be to make their presence in the world known, suicide bombers may be incorporated to the plan with explosives attached to them.


Clarke, P.C and Lister, C (2019) Wanted by F.B.I., but Walking Out of a Yemen Hearing. Retrieved from

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